Really? Even on election night, with North Carolina too close to call deep into the night, with Obama performing well in Virginia and Florida, with states like Iowa and Colorado showing good returns for Obama — even with all that going on, Ryan thought they were in a position to win until Ohio was called?
Nate Silver and his team at FiveThirtyEight are still at it. And I sincerely suggest that journalists interested in giving accurate information in elections spend some time reading his wonky post-mortems.
Obama won Elliott County in Eastern Kentucky, which has less than 8,000 people and is over 99 percent white. Elliott has apparently voted for the Democrat in every presidential race since the county was founded in 1869. That’s the longest winning streak for any party in any county in the country. But it was close this year, with Obama beating Romney 1,186 to 1,126.
This post will not update itself, so you’ll need to refresh from time to time if you’re following it. 11:13: The charter school amendment is going to pass. John Barrow seems to have beaten Lee Anderson by 138,841 to 119,671.…
This post will not update itself, so you’ll need to refresh from time to time if you’re following it. 12:35: With 92.96% in Ohio reporting, Obama’s lead is now 82,000 votes, a 1.59% margin. Just 12% of the vote in…
Here’s my guess: I think the turnout will be slightly better than the consensus predictions for Democrats generally and African Americans specifically. That will push Obama easily past 270, even though he’s likely to get only about 51 percent of the vote and to lose at least a couple of states that he took in 2008 — Indiana and North Carolina.
A few days ago, the NYT’s Public Editor Margaret Sullivan posted Under Attack, Nate Silver Picks the Wrong Defense. Sullivan seriously compromised her own credibility in that piece.
The state level polling is consistently showing Obama headed for something around 300 electoral votes. Obama is apparently ahead in Ohio, which would seem almost certain to guarantee him the election, but he also has other paths to 270 with states where he apparently has even narrower leads: New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia. Florida looks very close too, but an average of state polling puts Romney slightly ahead.
Gallup’s daily updated tracking poll of the presidential race shows Romney with a solid 6 point lead.
I’ve been talking a lot about Nate Silver’s great work at FiveThirtyEight, where he and his team input every presidential poll into a complex computer model. Here’s the first part of Silver’s extended interview with Jon Stewart on The Daily Show:
Open the post for the 2nd part.