Live blogging the presidential election

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With 92.96% in Ohio reporting, Obama’s lead is now 82,000 votes, a 1.59% margin. Just 12% of the vote in Toledo is in — Obama is winning that vote 2-1 right now. This one is over.


NPR has called the race for Obama in Virginia. As I just noted, that margin seemed pretty clear.


Romney has still not conceded, but with 92.49% of precincts reporting in Ohio, Obama leads by about 60,000 votes, about 1.2%. The remaining votes come from Obama-leaning areas.

Even without Ohio, Obama has a winning map right now.

It also looks like Obama will get a narrow victory in Virginia. He’s up by almost 29,000 votes with 87% of the vote in. Most of those votes seem to be yet to come from Prince William County, where Obama is winning right now by about 9 points.

In Florida, Obama is up by 49,000 votes with 91% reporting. Most of the outstanding votes are in Miami-Dade, where Obama is up by 25 points.


Obama takes Ohio, as Rahm Emanuel was being interviewed live on PBS. Obama 275, Romney 203. It looks like a few more will fall into line with Obama. My 323 prediction is looking not so bad.


Looking at the unreported counties in Ohio, it seems virtually certain that the state will go to Obama. I suspect that the networks are delaying the call as long as they can.


Let me note that PBS has been excellent tonight: congratulations to Judy Woodruff, Gwen Ifill, David Brooks, and Mark Shields, and the rest of the team. What a pleasure to listen to so little hype and so much realism.

10:50 p.m.:
With 64% of the vote in Ohio, Obama is up by 90,000 votes, but he’s going to pick up an additional 250,000 votes over Romney in Cuyahoga County (I just checked the Ohio SOS website). At this point, Obama could likely lose Ohio and still win, since he looks likely to win Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa. Romney needs to win just about every state out there, but it’s increasingly looking like he will lose both Virginia and Ohio, and Florida remains too close to call.

With 87% of the vote in Florida, Obama is up by 48,000 votes, less than 1%. Romney is ahead in North Carolina and Virginia; Obama leads in Ohio. All those states are still too close to call.

This whole thing feels like it’s winding down fast. With 43% of vote in Ohio, Obama is up by 5%. With 51% in Colorado, Obama is up by 2%. With 30% in New Mexico, Obama is up by 8%. Romney clings to narrow leads in Virginia and North Carolina, but both look very shaky for him. Florida is still edging toward Obama. We’re hitting a point where pretty much every one of those states needs to go to Romney.

The Democrats have held the Senate with wins in Indiana (a pickup of Richard Lugar’s former seat).

Elizabeth Warren has defeated Scott Brown in Massachusetts. The Democrats appear certain to retain control of the Senate.

With 82% of the vote in Florida, Obama leads Romney by about 14,000 votes out of 7 million cast. Wow. Tight. Let’s hope things don’t come down to Florida.

Obama has been called the winner in Wisconsin (no surprise! the polls were right!). With 36% of the vote in Ohio, Obama is up by 7%. It’s possible that the entire race could be effectively over by 10 p.m.

None of the key states have been called yet — Ohio, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, New Hampshire — but that’s bad news for Romney. He needs all four of those larger states to win, in all probability. It’s likely that some of the more Democratic leaning counties will report last in at least a couple of those races. Given that most of the data seems to be coming in pretty close to the polling consensus and that Michigan and Pennsylvania were both called quite quickly for Obama, I suspect the networks might be overly cautious in calling one or more states for Obama.

From Nate Silver:

“So far, however, Democrats also have an edge in the party identification numbers in the exit polls. In Ohio, 38 percent of voters identified as Democratic in the exit poll as compared with 31 percent of Republicans. And in Virginia, Democrats had a 37-to-33 advantage in party identification. These numbers are similar to what many pre-election polls showed.

Mitt Romney is not necessarily poised to lose, however: he led President Obama among independents in both the Ohio and Virginia exit polls.”

PBS reporting African American turnout might best 2008.




6:26 p.m.:
Near the end of All Things Considered today, Andrew Kohut from Pew said that the basic composition of the electorate looks the same as 2008: 74 percent white, 13 percent black, the same percentage of voters under 30.

This by no means assures an Obama re-election, but it’s definitely good news for the president.