Another Wordle word cloud — this time from the 2nd presidential debate. This is created from the Washington Post transcript with words such as the following removed: President, Obama, Governor, Romney, Candy, Crowley, applause, crosstalk, Mr., etc.
Right now, the FiveThirtyEight model gives Obama a 63.8% chance of winning on Nov. 6. That’s down dramatically from the 87.1% chance before the first debate. FWIW, InTrade has Obama with a 60.4% chance of re-election.
While more likely voters, men and whites “disapprove strongly” of Obama’s job performance than “approve strongly”, the two categories are dead even among women in the state. Among non-whites, 74 percent “approve strongly” and another 15 percent “approve somewhat”.
Ryan will likely fare fine in debates. He’s attractive and a good speaker (although he’s going to look a little too much like a long lost Romney son in campaign ads). His presence might inject into the campaign some real discussion about the federal budget and how to avoid the upcoming fiscal cliff — but the majority of voters will disagree with Ryan’s specific prescriptions. The more they hear, the less they’ll like.
Romney wins among whites, in the South, in rural areas, and among those over 65, but trails — in some cases really badly — for other demographic groups and geographies.
Mitt Romney will almost certainly finish the Republican race with far more delegates than Santorum or Gingrich or Paul. But will he finish with more than three of them put together, which is what he needs to do to win…
In 2008, the Republican primary in Georgia was really tight:
Mike Huckabee 33.9%
John McCain 31.6%
Mitt Romney 30.2%
Two new polls suggest a similar scenario [. . .]
From Jim Galloway at the AJC: CNN calls off March 1 GOP debate in Atlanta: The March 1 Republican presidential debate scheduled for Atlanta is off, CNN confirmed Thursday. The move comes after at least two of the four GOP…
I still see Mitt Romney as a virtual lock for the Republican nomination, but it’s going to be really ugly getting there. It looks like we’ll be deep into the spring — and maybe all the way to the convention…
I have no idea what will happen to the polls in Georgia over the next month, but I expect Romney to stay solidly in the lead nationally. Click here to see the raw data in a SurveyUSA poll conducted for…
I love Nate Silver’s blog FiveThirtyEight (named for the total number of electoral votes). Silver began his blog independently, but migrated over to the New York Times. Btw, I’m over my monthly limit in terms of free visits to Times’…
The data in the new NBC/Marist poll certainly gives some interesting glimpses of the Republican primary field in advance of Tuesday’s winner-take-all vote in Florida. A few details that stand out: In head-to-head general election hypotheticals Obama 49% – Romney…
As I wait for that big blog of plasma from the sun to come near Earth, I’ve been looking at the exit polls from South Carolina. Let me begin by saying that I’m shocked by the weakness of the Republican…
The Republican presidential candidates’ circular firing squad looks certain to continue at least until the primary vote in South Carolina. Tonight, ABC will broadcast an interview with Newt Gingrich’s second wife (he’s on #3 right now), in which she tells…
