In 2008, the Republican primary in Georgia was really tight:
Mike Huckabee 33.9%
John McCain 31.6%
Mitt Romney 30.2%
Two new polls suggest a similar scenario is possible in 2012, as no candidate seems likely to surge. From a recent Insider Advantage poll:
Gingrich 26%
Romney 24%
Santorum 23%
Paul 12%
And from a new Rasmussen poll, which has more favorable numbers for Gingrich, who desperately needs a win in his home state:
Gingrich 33%
Santorum 28%
Romney 20%
Paul 9%
As I’ve noted before, I think the primary process — especially the massive number of negative ads being funded by Super-PACs — is diminishing the general election prospects for the eventual nominee. I still expect that nominee to be Romney, who would have the best chance against Obama I think, but this is a weak field and it’s getting weaker. From George Will today:
Romney is not attracting people who want rationality leavened by romance. Santorum is repelling people who want politics unmediated by theology.
Neither Romney nor Santorum looks like a formidable candidate for November.