I don’t know if I really ought to try this or not, but I’m going to be live blogging off and on all evening. I will be at home listening to some music, hopefully editing some photos, and following the results from the Iowa Caucus(es), so I’m going to make some posts here. This worked pretty well during the election days for Savannah officials in November and December, but of course on those days there was actually an audience that was curious about what I had to say. Probably not so much this time.
Well I’m going to call it a night. Interesting stories tonight — and I think there are a variety of openings for Republicans who did badly tonight.
It looks like Clinton will win by about 1 percent, and it appears the delegates will be split evenly 22-22 between her and Sanders.
The AP is projecting that the Republican delegate breakdown looks like this, so far:
With 91 percent reporting, Clinton’s lead is back up to .8 points. Some of those pro-Clinton counties are finally coming in.
Clinton vs. Sanders is still too close to call, and there are even conflicting reports online right now about how many of the 44 pledged delegates each of the candidates will get to the 2016 convention. The AP has it 21 delegates for Sanders and 20 for Clinton.
173 precincts have yet to report on the Democratic side, and over 100 of them are in counties where Clinton currently leads, so … looks like it’s going to be a while before anyone can call the state for her, however, if she is even going to win.
I keep saying that Clinton should have the edge in the remaining precincts, but with just under 90 percent of the vote in, Sanders is still edging up and Clinton is below 50 percent.
Politico has reported that Mike Huckabee has dropped out of the Republican race.
In Rubio’s speech right now in Iowa, broadcast on NPR, he is hitting the same anti-Clinton talking points in the ad I referenced earlier. He also said he would make the U.S. military the strongest in the world again — but of course the U.S. military is BY FAR the strongest in the world already.
Sanders continues to inch closer, so maybe there are enough votes to get him to a statistical tie (I still doubt it).
Hey, Sarah McCammon is on NPR.org right now.
With 77 percent reporting:
Clinton is up by less than 2 percent with 77 percent of the vote in, but of the precincts yet to report, well over half of them are in counties where Clinton currently leads.
NPR is reporting that O’Malley is dropping out of the race.
Looks like Sanders will take Clinton County.
With 72 percent in, Sanders has pulled within 1.6 points of Clinton, but she leads in large Polk County (Des Moines), where only 53 percent of the vote has been counted. So there are a lot of votes out there for her still, probably more than for Sanders from what I know of the geography.
I don’t watch much TV, but I’ve seen the Rubio ad in Georgia running with “highlights” from one of his debate appearances. I find it mind-numbingly depressing. He apparently wants to build his campaign here on the Clinton emails, Benghazi, and capturing and torturing ISIS members at Guantanamo.
With 56 percent of precincts reporting on the Republican side:
So my friend Jason just asked about the potential Bloomberg candidacy as an independent.
Trump is doing better than I predicted earlier tonight, but he’s only got 26 percent of the vote and trails Cruz by 3 points right now. There are enough votes from enough corners of the state already in that I don’t expect to see dramatic changes to the current numbers.
So the top three candidates on the Republican side (Cruz, Trump, Rubio) have over 75 percent of the vote in Iowa so far. If Bush, Christie, or Kasich are going to break out of the pack, they’ll need a good showing in New Hampshire, probably, or their campaigns might be done.
And click here for the Republican map.
Click here for a user friendly map of the Democratic caucuses by the Iowa Democratic party.
What an ugly night this looks like for Bush, Fiorina, Kasich, and Christie — four of the candidates who might have somehow laid claim to the establishment Republican support. It sure looks like we’ll see establishment types rallying around Rubio from here on — because they might have few other places to go.
With more than a third of the Democratic vote reported, Clinton is up 51.8 to Sanders’ 47.6. O’Malley has less than 1 percent. Will O’Malley quit after tonight?
Click here for the updated results at the Des Moines Register.
74, 69, 68
Btw, for Savannahians: the Shabazz hit-and-run trial started today and will go to the jury on Tuesday. Check out Jan Skutch’s coverage in the Savannah Morning News.
So I’m trying to embed a couple of tweets, but the embedding function doesn’t seem to be working for some reason.
Btw, according to FiveThirtyEight, about 25 percent of the results will be reported by 10 p.m. Eastern, and about 90 percent by 11 p.m. That’s if the pattern from 2012 holds.
I don’t know what’s going to happen on the Democratic side, but I’ll go with the polls and call it virtually 50/50.
On the Republican side, I’m expecting a good night for Ted Cruz, who seems to be doing well with evangelicals and social conservatives. Remember that in 2012, Iowa Republicans put Santorum at the top, fractionally ahead of Romney, though the immediate coverage said that Romney had won. In 2008, Huckabee (really?) won the Republican caucus with about one third of the vote.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that I think this will be a “bad” night for Donald Trump, which I would define as anything less than 20 percent support. I’m thinking about two things:
So I’ve got my eye tonight on a variety of media outlets, but I’ll especially be following the live blog at FiveThirtyEight, the site spearheaded by statistician Nate Silver. I’m a numbers guy, and I like his team’s seriousness about the data.
Iowa’s racial demographics don’t match America’s. Non-Hispanic whites make up 87.1 percent of the state’s population, compared with 62.1 percent of the U.S. population. Iowa is 3.4 percent black, while the nation is 13.2 percent black.