The title of today’s S&P/Case-Shiller press release pretty much says it all: The Fourth Quarter Starts with Broad-based Declines in Home Prices
Case-Shiller looks at repeat sales of homes. It’s one of the most widely respected home price indices, but there is something of a lag in the data. Today’s release for October actually is a composite of August, September, and October.
Case-Shiller headlines data that is not seasonally adjusted, but also provides seasonally adjusted numbers.
More from the press release:
Data through October 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed decreases of 1.1% and 1.2% for the 10- and 20-City Composites in October vs. September. Nineteen of the 20 cities covered by the indices also saw home prices decrease over the month. The 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual returns of -3.0% and -3.4% versus October 2010, respectively. Fourteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites saw improved annual returns compared to Septemberâ€™s data. Miami saw no change in annual returns in October; while Atlanta, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Minneapolis saw their annual rates worsen. At -11.7% Atlanta posted the lowest annual return. Detroit and Washington DC were the only two cities to post positive annual returns of +2.5% and +1.3%, respectively.
Here are the 10- and 20-City Composites in terms of year-over-year percentages. I think there’s some reason to hope that year-over-year declines will stop by the end of 2012, although there are ample reasons to expect the slide to continue:
More from the press release, David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Indices:
â€œAtlanta and the Midwest are regions that really stand out in terms of recent relative weakness. Atlanta was down 5.0% over the month, after having fallen by 5.9% in September. It also has the weakest annual return, down 11.7%. Chicago, Cleveland Detroit and Minneapolis all posted monthly declines of 1.0% or more in October. These markets were some of the strongest during the spring/summer buying season. However, Detroit is the healthiest when viewed on an annual basis. It is up 2.5% versus October 2010. Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit and Las Vegas are four markets where average prices are below their January 2000 levels; and Atlanta and Las Vegas posted new lows in October.”
I haven’t looked at it yet, but the press release announces a new blog for the S&P Indices: HousingViews.com.
With a seasonal adjustment, Atlanta’s monthly decline is only slightly less grim (4.1% compared to 5.0% in the NSA data), but Atlanta’s home price level drops even farther in the seasonally adjusted data (90.29 SA vs. 91.21 NSA). With the seasonal adjustment, Atlanta’s home prices are back to 1998 levels.
For more numbers, graphs, and analysis, go to Calculated Risk.