In recent weeks, I more or less predicted another recession and quoted extensively from a respected analyst that thinks we will avoid one.
Economist Robert Shiller — co-creator of the widely watched Case-Shiller home price index — is on the fence about that issue in a great, plain-talking interview with the WSJ.
It’s well worth a listen, so I’ll embed the whole thing here:
I think Shiller is too focused on issues of “confidence”, but he obviously pays plenty of attention to key data. I’m intrigued by his desire to move beyond the discussion of bailouts and stimulus to a broader rethinking of reforming the financial system. “I would like to see a more inspirational message,” notes near the 7-minute mark. He wants a financial system “that serves the people better.”