Right now, the FiveThirtyEight model gives Obama a 63.8% chance of winning on Nov. 6. That’s down dramatically from the 87.1% chance before the first debate. FWIW, InTrade has Obama with a 60.4% chance of re-election.
While more likely voters, men and whites “disapprove strongly” of Obama’s job performance than “approve strongly”, the two categories are dead even among women in the state. Among non-whites, 74 percent “approve strongly” and another 15 percent “approve somewhat”.
“Of course, Obama has no chance of getting a second term in this economy,” my friend said definitively. “And whoever gets elected in 2012 will be a one-term President too.”
Any single poll might show serious flaws or be a statistical outlier. But taken together they have a strong track record.
Any time I think of Maurice Sendak, I have vivid memories — quick, sharp ones — of our house on Knollwood Street in Frankfort, Kentucky.
Romney wins among whites, in the South, in rural areas, and among those over 65, but trails — in some cases really badly — for other demographic groups and geographies.
From USA Today’s Swing States Poll: A shift by women puts Obama in lead: In the fifth Swing States survey taken since last fall, Obama leads Republican front-runner Mitt Romney 51%-42% among registered voters just a month after the president…
