And those drainage problems are exacerbated by other problems of our own making. There was about 6 inches of water racing along the curb in front of my house on 32nd Street and headed toward the storm sewer; the majority of that water was running off of the surface parking lot next door.

One of the worst and most predictable spots for street flooding is on Abercorn more or less between 64th and 66th streets. When the rain is as intense and prolonged as it was this afternoon, there was no doubt that stretch of road would flood, that a few cars would stop or stall, that emergency personnel or road rescue crews would have to be called, and so forth.

It’s very easy, and not entirely wrong, to blame the drivers who rather ignorantly plow straight ahead into water that quickly reaches their doors. On the other hand, you’re driving along an important arterial road in the middle of the afternoon, and you’re moving along fine despite the heavy rain, and the roads ahead are open and apparently flat — it’s easy to see how someone who has not traveled that stretch in a storm could get stuck.

And that raises another question: if the same streets flood every time it rains, why do public safety officials wait until one or more cars have stalled before they close the roads?

Kind of oddly, the city of Savannah just had a series of meetings so residents could share the spots that flood. Well, this stretch of Abercorn floods every time. I even wrote a column referencing this intersection a few years ago.

So these four videos offer views of 65th Street and Abercorn Street. It’s interesting in one of them to see how much wake is produced by passing cars — in some places, those wakes do significant property damage. It’s also interesting to see how much standing water there is even after the rain has stopped.

The city has been exploring options for major infrastructure upgrades in this area, which includes Habersham Village, but the only bid came in at $75 million — that’s a massive expenditure in a city of this size, especially considering that some drainage problems will surely remain no matter how much money has been spent.

All the jets and such appeared to be working on the fountain this morning, and the ice was beginning to melt when I got there — at least on the statues that were being hit by the sun.

These would be better shots if the sun weren’t so bright and if the shadows weren’t so deep, but I don’t know if I’ll get out there any earlier tomorrow . . . of if the ice will be as thick.

Enjoy:

UPDATE, 2:40 p.m.: The NHC’s 2 p.m. advisory contained little new information. High tide in the Savannah area is at 7:30 p.m. tonight, and we could see at some point over the next 24 hours a storm surge of 1-2 feet. So that could compound some localized flooding issues, if we get significant rain.

ORIGINAL POST:
I blog about things that interest me here at Savannah Unplugged.

And I am interested in the weather, especially tropical systems and cyclones. In part, this might have to do with my lifelong interest in natural disasters, but it’s mainly because I live on the coast here in Savannah and my scientist sister lives in New Orleans. Nancye and I routinely trade news and links about developments in the tropics.

So I’ll probably be posting some this summer about tropical storms and hurricanes.

In May 2012, I posted off and on for several days about Tropical Storm Beryl, which formed quickly and had a number of pretty dramatic effects. I posted about it out of simple interest, but also out of frustration with the generally poor coverage of the storm on local websites. I don’t watch much TV, so I get my info from the web. I can’t even begin to tell you how frustrating it was to hear misinformation posted incessantly via social media by locals who had apparently been glued to their televisions for hours but who also seemed to have only the vaguest idea what the forecast actually was. And then they complained about getting too much information.

For much more fleshed out thoughts about the issue of misinformation, check out that post: 3 lessons from Beryl.

Anyway, here’s what’s up with Tropical Storm Andrea, as of about noon on Thursday, June 6.

From the National Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. update (the NHC’s regular schedule is to issue updates at 8 a.m., 11 a.m., 2 p.m., 5 p.m., 8 p.m., 11 p.m., 2 a.m., eastern time):

Andrea may have just formed last night, but she’s a fairly large tropical storm. There seems no danger of the storm reaching hurricane strength, but it’s possible — even pretty likely — that we’ll have heavy rains here in the Savannah area beginning this afternoon and continuing through much of the night. According to WTOC, we coud get up to 8 inches of rain. We could also have some dangerous wind gusts up to 50 mph.

This is a serious storm. The entire Georgia coast is under a tropical storm warning.

Now, maybe Andrea will weaken more than expected, or take a harder turn to the east, or do something else that dramatically reduces the expected impacts.

But it’s also possible that Beryl could strengthen more than expected before making landfall, that it could slow down a bit, and that it could produce even more significant flooding than the current worst-case scenario.

So be careful, and be informed, especially if you’ve got events planned for the rest of the day or night on Thursday.

From National Geographic’s Tornado Chaser Tim Samaras Killed in Oklahoma Twister:

Tim Samaras, one of the world’s best-known storm chasers, died in Friday’s El Reno, Oklahoma tornado along with his son [Paul], according to a statement from Samaras’s brother.

“They all unfortunately passed away but doing what they LOVED,” Jim Samaras, Tim’s brother, wrote on Facebook, saying that storm chaser Carl Young was also killed. “I look at it that he is in the ‘big tornado in the sky.'”

Tim Samaras, who was 55, spent the past 20 years zigzagging across the Plains, predicting where tornados would develop and placing probes he designed in the twister’s path in to measure data from inside the cyclone.

The National Geographic piece rhapsodizes about the research that Samaras did over the years. He received 18 grants from National Geographic for his work.

But nowhere does the lengthy piece at National Geographic mention that Samaras was also a star of Discovery’s Storm Chasers. His bio from the site, which has not been updated with his death:

Chasing has been a part of Tim’s life for over 25 years. Ten years ago, he developed his own tornado probes to record meteorological data inside of tornadoes. On June 24, 2003, [see video below] Tim dropped a probe in the path of an F-4 tornado where it measured an astounding 100 millibar pressure drop — a record that still stands today. Tim runs the scientific field program, TWISTEX (Tactical Weather Instrumented Sampling in Tornadoes Experiment, www.twistex.org). Their mission is to help understand why tornadoes form in order to increase warning times in Tornado Alley.

Last year, Tim had a successful probe deployment on the last chase of the season in Grand Island, Nebraska. This year, TWISTEX is introducing new instruments to help them meet their scientific goals, including a new probe called TOWER. This new probe features multiple anemometers to measure wind speed and direction, cans of smoke to track circulation, and a brand new 360-degree camera mount. In addition, Tim is conducting research for Boeing, testing the effects of large hail on the company’s new aircraft.

For a few days at least, we’ll be reading about the value of Samaras’ research, but it will be interesting after that to hear more about any risks that might have been taken just to create entertainment.

Here’s Samaras’ final tweet, from Friday afternoon:

Storms now initiating south of Watonga along triple point.Dangerous day ahead for OK–stay weather savvy! twitter.com/Tim_Samaras/st…

— Tim Samaras (@Tim_Samaras) May 31, 2013

And here’s some incredible footage from that major storm a decade ago. If the real situation here was even a tenth as dramatic as it appears in this video, then it was scary indeed. Clearly Samaras knew what kind of risks he was taking.

Thursday’s low of 44 was only 3 degrees above the average low of 41 for December 13th.

Savannahians responded to the two days of winter in various ways: some skipped their workouts, some — like me — turned on a space heater in the bedroom and retired early, some skipped social engagements, some took to Facebook — repeatedly — to announce their displeasure with the cold.

Some did all of those things, as those Facebook posts show.

With a sunny day in the 60s and with a ten day forecast of highs in the 60s and 70s, with lots of sun, local residents have finally caught a break from those terrible two days.

After two days of cold, Clumsy is finally able to enjoy the warm sidewalk on 32nd Street.

The final path and intensity of the storm also meant that New Orleans would be spared truly catastrophic wind damage.

But then sometime late on that Monday morning in 2005, I heard a TV news report of a levee breach, accompanied by an inane reassurance that New Orleans was not filling up like a bowl of water. Since much of the city is below sea level, there was no way that some neighborhoods couldn’t be filling up. Of course, as it turned out, there wasn’t just a single levee breach, and all areas of the city were already flooded or were flooding up to at least sea level.

In the immediate aftermath of those breaches, the Corps of Engineers tried to place some of the blame on corruption of New Orleans officials, but just last week a Corps official backed way off from those accusations. From Nola.com on August 22 of this year, Corps of Engineers critic repeats accusations of shoddy work:

Rosenthal also took the corps to task for its past accusations that New Orleans officials bore some responsibility for the canal failures because they pressured the corps to pursue an inferior storm protection plan. For instance, she said the corps blamed local officials for forcing it to reinforce the canal walls rather than build floodgates without pumps at the mouth of the three outfall canals.

The commanding general of the corps in Katrinaâ€s aftermath, Lt. Gen. Carl Strock, told the New York Times in June 2006 that the corps accepted responsibility for the levee failures. Earlier this year, he told The Times-Picayune that his statements about local officials†roles were not intended to be deceitful.

“Throughout our response to Katrina I emphasized how critical it was to be transparent and honest if we were to regain the trust of the public,” he said. “I might have illustrated my description with things I had heard but not personally researched, but there was absolutely no intent to deceive anyone.”

Rosenthal made a public-records request for any documents that supported the corps†allegations that they were pressured to build up the canal walls and not install floodgates. In February, Ken Holder, chief of public affairs for the corps†New Orleans District office, responded that the corps couldnâ€t determine which documents Strock and his second-in-command, Major Gen. Don Riley, used to make such claims.[. . .]

Rosenthal said Wednesday that “the evidence speaks for itself.” She added: “It seems pretty clear that the reason the corps canâ€t produce the data is because it doesnâ€t exist.”

Next, let me share two images from Tulane geology professor Stephen A. Nelson’s amazing field guide to the Katrina levee breaks, Hurricane Katrina – What Happened?. My sister Nancye is one of Nelson’s colleagues. First, a map of New Orleans in 1878, showing development on the highest ground, and then a map from the Times-Picayune showing the depths of the flooding about two weeks after the storm:

Here’s the official Katrina forecast map at 11 p.m. on August 26, 2005:

Here’s the official Isaac forecast map at 8 p.m. on August 26, 2012:

Here’s the latest on Isaac’s likely storm surge levels from Nola.com:

The threat to southeastern Louisiana is likely to include storm surges of between 6 and 12 feet above sea level, up to 12 inches of rain, with 20 inches possible in some locations, and sustained winds of 100 mph and higher gusts for much of the coast, depending on the exact location of the storm, according to the Slidell office of the National Weather Service. Its forecast calls for winds of 60 to 80 miles per hour on the north and south sides of Lake Pontchartrain, with gusts to 100 mph.

Water levels are likely to reach 5 to 7 feet above sea level in Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas, and 7 to 11 feet in Lake Borgne and south along the coast on the east side of the Mississippi River. West of the river, water heights could reach 9 feet.

National Hurricane Center Science and Operations Officer Chris Landsea said Sunday that while still only a tropical storm with sustained winds of 60 mph on Sunday, Isaac is huge, with tropicalstorm-force winds extending out 200 miles from its center.

So, barring a rather dramatic change in the track, this looks like the first really big test of the New Orleans levee system since Katrina. Those levees have obviously been repaired, but well enough?

I know everyone wants to project a sense of calm and confidence, but I think it’s inexplicable that New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu has not called for an evacuation of all neighborhoods below sea level. By tomorrow morning, we’ll already by within 36 hours of projected landfall. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has called for voluntary evacuations in a number of parishes but sounds confident in levee protection:

State and local officials are taking a number of steps to protect our people and property from the storm. In addition to issuing a State of Emergency for the storm, we are in touch with parish leaders and we are recommending voluntary evacuations within the hurricane watch area. Specifically, this is for people in low lying areas, areas outside of levee protection, and areas south of the Intracoastal Waterway.

From The Guardian’s ‘Derecho’ phenomenon responsible for violent line of US storms:

Meteorologists said Friday’s onslaught from the heavens was the result of a number of atmospheric factors that combined to create the perfect storm – or a derecho, to give it a more accurate description.

The phenomenon – which derives it name from the Spanish for “straight” – takes the form of a line of warm-weather, fast-moving thunderstorms that roll over the land, usually in the summer months.

The result, as was in evidence this weekend, can be devastating. They are uncommon, but not altogether rare – with Friday’s derecho making its mark mainly because of the number of people affected.

Daniel Porter, meteorologist at the National Weather Service, explained: “A derecho is basically a long-lived, long-lasting line of thunderstorms.

Check out this video and note the sheer distance — about 600 miles — traveled by the Ring of Fire Derecho:

Same video but extended a little bit north:

Let me elaborate.

1. Dangerous storms can form very close to the coast.

We got the first advisory about Beryl on Friday afternoon. By Sunday evening, Tropical Storm Beryl was coming ashore near Jacksonville at close to hurricane strength.

Tropical Storm Alberto formed close to the coast too, although it never made landfall.

This is a worrisome pair of incidents, although two storms don’t necessarily constitute a pattern. As waters warm through the summer, it’s possible that storms forming in the same location could strengthen much more quickly than either Alberto or Beryl did, leaving coastal residents very little time for preparations.

2. The National Hurricane Center was spot on in its forecasts.

Here’s the actual track of Beryl from Weather Underground:

And here’s the NHC’s initial forecast on Friday night:

The first forecast NHC forecast map for Beryl at 11 p.m. Friday, May 25th

The initial NHC forecast on Friday predicted an even sharper U-turn with Tropical Depression Beryl passing south of Savannah on its way back to the Atlantic, but in fact it went north of us. I’d say it’s amazingly accurate all the way around, however, in terms of position, strength, and speed.

3. Some Savannahians spend way too much time watching TV (and still didn’t seem to know what the storm was doing or was expected to do).

My first post about Beryl was on Friday afternoon, hours before it formed. My blog is largely comprised of things that actually interest me, and I am extremely interested in tropical storms. So Beryl seemed a pretty obvious thing to keep posting about, especially since it became obvious that 1) there weren’t any local websites providing the information I wanted and that 2) regular readers of this blog were hitting it in significant numbers to get updates.

My main source — the National Hurricane Center — is simple to access and incredibly predictable. The NHC typically updates at least every 3 hours (8, 11, 2, 5, 8, etc.) for every named storm. Each update comes with a fresh forecast map, in addition to current advisories and pithy discussion.

The Savannah area was never predicted to get the brunt of Beryl, but the effects were still considerable:

• some residents lost power off and on for a couple of days, as many as a couple of thousand customers at various points
• there were some downed trees, power lines, and traffic lights
• the river was closed for a time to cargo traffic
• there were periodic special marine warnings, plus other watches and warnings in this part of the state
• as many as 45 swimmers had to be rescued by lifeguards on Saturday at Tybee
• the beach was closed to swimmers on Sunday and Monday because of dangerous surf conditions (over a traditional beach weekend holiday, no less)
• while some areas ended up with far less rain than seemed likely, other areas got a lot — including parts of Bulloch County, with 4 inches of rain plus a tornado warning on Tuesday, and parts of Jenkins and Screven counties, with flash flood warnings for much of Tuesday

I’ve got a word for all this: news. Developments like these are important, and lots of people — business owners, boat owners, those who actually had to work on the holiday weekend, travelers, and so forth and so on — needed regular, up-to-date, accurate information.

I don’t really watch TV, so I can’t say much about the general accuracy of local TV coverage. My cable package doesn’t even include The Weather Channel, so I can’t say much about that either.

But I do know:

• that I routinely checked Pat Prokop and WTOC’s updates while continuing to consult those NHC updates. I certainly got quality and timely information from those sources.
• that anyone who was expecting a direct hit from a tropical storm in the Savannah area on Sunday night was either a) not getting their news from accurate sources or b) not actually paying attention to the news that was being broadcast.
• that I was the direct recipient of snarky comments — and read a lot more such comments online on Monday –about Beryl being a huge bust, even though there were some pretty important local effects (listed above) and even though the most significant local rainfall had been predicted for the previous three days to occur on Tuesday.  

Perhaps because it was a holiday weekend, a lot of people spent a lot more time glued to their TVs than normal. Perhaps because it was a holiday weekend, some media outlets were understaffed and unprepared to cover a weather event that didn’t even become a story until late Friday.

I only witnessed one example of truly erroneous reporting (GPB newscasts continued to say the coast was under a tropical storm warning for at least two hours after the warning had been canceled on Monday morning), but I’m assuming that there must have been other incorrect or hyperbolic forecasts that suckered some people into expecting Beryl to be dramatically worse.

Or maybe it was a cumulative thing: folks who had nowhere to go and were safe inside their own houses might simply have gotten frustrated with regular weather updates, no matter how important those updates were to others who didn’t have so much leisure time.

Either way, televisions are pretty easy to turn off.