Near 100% chance of tropical cyclone forming over Memorial Day weekend

Click here for an updated post with information as of 5 p.m. Sunday.

There’s a near 100% chance of a tropical or subtropical cyclone forming off the Atlantic coast sometime this weekend. If she reaches tropical storm strength, which seems likely, she’ll be christened Beryl.

Here’s the text of the National Hurricane Center’s latest update:

SATELLITE PICTURES AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA…CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA…IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE…ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED LATER TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…NEAR 100 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT…BUT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. COASTAL INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IN ADDITION…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM…PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE…AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

From the 8:45 p.m., Friday update