Silver is an amazing numbers cruncher, and his dynamic modeling of the polling back in 2008 resulted in spot-on predictions about Obama’s win over McCain.

He’s obviously doing similar work this year, but this time he’s added all sorts of other variables to his model.

From a post yesterday, Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage:

Mr. Obama remains slightly ahead of Mr. Romney in most national polls, and he has had a somewhat clearer advantage in polling conducted at the state level. Mr. Obama would be about 80 percent likely to win an election held today, according to the model.

However, the outlook for the Nov. 6 election is much less certain, with Mr. Obama having winning odds of just over 60 percent. The forecast currently calls for Mr. Obama to win roughly 290 electoral votes, but outcomes ranging everywhere from about 160 to 390 electoral votes are plausible, given the long lead time until the election and the amount of news that could occur between now and then. Both polls and economic indicators are a pretty rough guide five months before an election.

The forecast works by running simulations of the Electoral College, which are designed to consider the uncertainty in the outcome at the national level and in individual states. It recognizes that voters in each state could be affected by universal factors — like a rising or falling economic tide — as well as by circumstances particular to each state.

Silver and his team have some great graphics posted as well, including the map seen here which shows the current odds of Obama or Romney winning each state.

Of the key swing states, the one that seems most important for Romney to secure would seem to be Florida. I have a hard time seeing how Romney could reach 270 electoral votes without Florida.

Silver notes Ohio and Virginia as key tipping point states, but I would say that Virginia might be the single most important state for Obama to secure in his column.

That’s obviously just speculation right now, of course.

First, let’s recall the excellent New York Times piece from 2007 about the Savannah River Landing site (that big tract of land east of the Marriott along the riverfront): Savannah Adds to the Master Plan of 1733 Many of us already had doubts about the project when that piece was published in spring 2007, but I and some other doubters were too quiet in raising them (not that it would have made much difference one way or the other).

From that NYT piece, which was published about 7 months before the country entered the deepest recession since the Great Depression:

As one of the oldest planned cities in the country, Savannah is known for compact, walkable streets and beautifully landscaped historic squares. Designed by the cityâ€s founder, James Oglethorpe, in 1733, it has remained largely intact even as electricity and cars were introduced, though buildings have changed uses over time.

It is precisely this longevity that the Ambling Companies hopes to build on with the largest expansion of the historic downtown since Oglethorpe first envisioned it. Savannah River Landing, an $800 million mixed-use development currently under way, will extend the city east along the Savannah River on land that Oglethorpe platted but never made use of.

More than four years ago, the cityâ€s economic development agency hired Christian Sottile, a Savannah-based urban planner, to update the Oglethorpe plan, which is now guiding the development of Amblingâ€s 54-acre site. Mr. Sottile will be continuing a pattern of development that last had a major addition in 1856.

“Whatâ€s so unique about Savannah River Landing, we were able to reach back 150 years and continue a history of urbanism native to this place,” said Mr. Sottile, who teaches urban planning and design at the Savannah College of Art and Design.

Savannah River Landing would have created six new squares, and — as noted in the piece — would have been connected to downtown through likely changes to the current street pattern at the northeast end of downtown. That over time probably would have meant the elimination of the diagonal General McIntosh Boulevard and the recreation of gridded north-south and east-west blocks. (I guarantee if would have worked on many levels better than what we have now.)

Savannah River Landing as an extension of the Oglethorpe plan and street grid

PSP Investments has hired a local consultant to work with those partners and others to plan the development’s future.

City of Savannah officials said they look forward to those talks. The city government never feared the project would collapse, said Assistant City Manager Chris Morrill.

“We always knew this was a unique development on the East Coast,” Morrill said. “We’re in this for the long term.”

The city’s concern going forward is in the project remaining true to its master plan. Designed to be an extension of Savannah’s historic district, the Savannah River Landing was to incorporate parks, squares and tree-lined streets. Of the site’s 54 acres, 25 were to be public space.

The city wants the “new players” to keep “the public realm connected,” Morrill said.

“And we don’t see that changing,” he said.

I never shared Morrill’s optimism from two years ago that the plan would be or even could be preserved. (Morrill is of course now city manager in Roanoke.)

From this week’s New stadium could spur development on Savannah River Landing, property manager says:

The Savannah River Landing project, which broke ground in 2008, stalled when the economy did. The original concept, developed by Ambling Companies, called for an $800 million investment that would bring a mix of two hotels, 600 condominiums, 110 town homes, 17 million-dollar waterfront homes and about 50 shops and retail stores.

That plan, and the design meant to mimic the Oglethorpe grid pattern of historic downtown, may be revised in the current economy.

“The vision looked beautiful on paper, but Iâ€ve never seen any feasibility study that supported the amount of retail and residential on it,” Burgstiner said.

Given that, the look of the project could change, too.

“Probably a lot of the plan that is there will stay, but a lot of it will change,” he said.

These are interesting discussions.

I’m particularly interested to know from that piece quoted directly above that the Savannah River Landing owners seem willing to be flexible about land use and even land acquisition. Since an open air stadium would need only about 20% of the site, there’s reason to think a deal could be worked out despite the fact that the owners likely have tens of millions of dollars tied up in the site.

And it’s always been tantalizing to consider various uses that would be suitable for a site in such close proximity to downtown — a movie theater, for example.

But there will definitely be something lost if all or even part of the existing plan to extend the Oglethorpe grid is altered.

At the end of the day, as I keep noting, Savannah River Landing is privately owned, but we can certainly help guide its use and future development — something will happen there sometime — through close attention and informed discussion. And perhaps through direct investment.

From the piece:

The official statistics say that the national economy has been growing for almost three years, and that Maryland is growing faster than most states. But in Prince Georgeâ€s County, where housing prices have fallen more than anywhere else in the state, there is scant evidence of renewed prosperity.

Auto sales are slowly improving nationwide, but car dealers here say the arrival of spring and tax refunds are failing once again to bring buyers to their lots. Contractors who built homes say they are glad for work fixing roofs.

“I donâ€t think youâ€ll find anyone in here who will tell you that itâ€s over,” said the Fish Marketâ€s owner, Rick Giovannoni, gesturing at the half-empty tables.

He paused, then added: “Well, we are selling more drinks.”

It seems a no-brainer, but the article lays out evidence that areas with high-debt burdens and which were hardest hit by the housing bust have had the weakest recoveries.

In today’s NYT, check out the Economix blog Mapping the Laggards in the Recovery by Binyamin Appelbaum, who also wrote the piece above.

It includes the following map and explanation:

Georgia and the only four states that were arguably harder hit by the bust — Michigan, Florida, Nevada, and California — are all in pink or red, indicating a lagging recovery.