Thanks Brother. So far the Fed officials seem in pretty broad agreement that inflation will remain subdued for multiple reasons, but it’s tricky, and you’re right about those commodity prices. Higher gas prices seem to me the really big danger for inflation — and on the of the biggest threats to the fragile recovery — and food could also hammer the poor especially if we see even moderate inflation. Given the weakness of the labor market, on the other hand, it’s really hard to see any demands for dramatic pay increases (I think we could see several years of workers willing to let their wages continue to stagnate or decline), which could also mean that disinflation and deflation are also still possibilities. It’s a tricky, tricky balancing act — I remember friends of mine 2 1/2 years ago who were convinced that runaway inflation is right around the corner (i.e., now) with Obama and the Fed’s stimulative policies. They were obviously wrong, but that doesn’t mean that such fears are unfounded now. We have to figure out that health care spending asap. There was a great piece in the NYT by David Leonhardt about how economically untenable it is to tackle Medicare spending but to totally exempt everyone over 55, since those very couples will end up costing on average something like $300,000 more in Medicare spending than they put into the program (that’s even adjust 2% per year). Social security is less tricky to fix, though all the fixes are politically extremely unpopular, and I don’t know if the average American (or politician) is ready yet to embrace defense cuts. I hope to write more about all this soon and of course welcome your input.