{"id":895,"date":"2011-07-25T14:29:01","date_gmt":"2011-07-25T18:29:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/?p=895"},"modified":"2011-07-25T14:29:01","modified_gmt":"2011-07-25T18:29:01","slug":"chicago-fed-economic-activit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2011\/07\/25\/chicago-fed-economic-activit\/","title":{"rendered":"Chicago Fed index a good barometer of economic activity"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"e26b170012445c56d240655bdd03f7bf\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: left; margin: 10px 10px 10px 0;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\r\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-5595881567027133\";\r\n\/* Medium Rectangle *\/\r\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"8584504377\";\r\ngoogle_ad_width = 300;\r\ngoogle_ad_height = 250;\r\n\/\/-->\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"\r\nsrc=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"269\" data-permalink=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2011\/03\/06\/savannah-stopover-preview-7-sanders-bohlke\/window-17\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/window6-e1299440530555.jpg?fit=67%2C77\" data-orig-size=\"67,77\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;4.8&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;NIKON D40&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;1244646881&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;38&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;200&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0.033333333333333&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"window\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/window6-e1299440530555.jpg?fit=67%2C77\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/window6-e1299440530555.jpg?fit=67%2C77\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/03\/window6-e1299440530555.jpg?resize=67%2C77\" alt=\"\" title=\"window\" width=\"67\" height=\"77\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-269\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/>There&#8217;s a lot of economic data that I follow that rarely makes it into my columns in the Savannah Morning News. <\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s certainly true for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which I check monthly but rarely mention in print. It&#8217;s one of many indices that I follow via the website <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\" target=\"_blank\">Calculated Risk<\/a>. Here&#8217;s CR&#8217;s graph updated with the June CFNAI index reading:<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"896\" data-permalink=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2011\/07\/25\/chicago-fed-economic-activit\/chicagofednaijune2011\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/ChicagoFedNAIJune2011-e1311617633539.jpg?fit=650%2C444\" data-orig-size=\"650,444\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"ChicagoFedNAIJune2011\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/ChicagoFedNAIJune2011-e1311617633539.jpg?fit=300%2C205\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/ChicagoFedNAIJune2011-e1311617633539.jpg?fit=594%2C406\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/ChicagoFedNAIJune2011-e1311617633539.jpg?resize=594%2C406\" alt=\"\" title=\"ChicagoFedNAIJune2011\" width=\"594\" height=\"406\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-896\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s a good index to follow for a variety of reasons. The Chicago Fed defines it this way: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity.The indicators are drawn from four<br \/>\nbroad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption<br \/>\nand housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>More people would follow it, I imagine, if the scale made more sense. Essentially, zero indicates normal trend growth in the economy. Positive numbers are above-trend, and negative are below-trend, but as long as the numbers are above -.70, we probably aren&#8217;t in recession. The reading for June was -.46, up slightly from the -.55 in May. The 3-month moving average declined, however, to -.60. The current press release is <a href=\"http:\/\/www.chicagofed.org\/digital_assets\/publications\/cfnai\/2011\/cfnai_july2011.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>Note on the graph that recessions are typically followed by periods of above-trend growth. But not this time &#8212; and no surprise. Recoveries from financial crises are typically choppy, and the excess capacity and slack in the economy is preventing the usual surges in fields like construction. <\/p>\n<div class=\"e26b170012445c56d240655bdd03f7bf\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:0px 0 0px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:inline-block;width:300px;height:250px\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-5595881567027133\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"4374909701\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s a lot of economic data that I follow that rarely makes it into my columns in the Savannah Morning News. That&#8217;s certainly true for the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which I check monthly but rarely mention in print.&hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"more-link-p\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2011\/07\/25\/chicago-fed-economic-activit\/\">Read more &rarr;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/ChicagoFedNAIJune2011-e1311617633539.jpg?fit=650%2C444","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1gN9R-er","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/895"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=895"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/895\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}