{"id":4352,"date":"2012-12-06T10:43:55","date_gmt":"2012-12-06T15:43:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/?p=4352"},"modified":"2012-12-06T10:43:55","modified_gmt":"2012-12-06T15:43:55","slug":"hurricane-sandys-economic-impacts-tough-to-gauge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2012\/12\/06\/hurricane-sandys-economic-impacts-tough-to-gauge\/","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane Sandy&#8217;s economic impacts tough to gauge"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"e26b170012445c56d240655bdd03f7bf\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: left; margin: 10px 10px 10px 0;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\r\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-5595881567027133\";\r\n\/* Medium Rectangle *\/\r\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"8584504377\";\r\ngoogle_ad_width = 300;\r\ngoogle_ad_height = 250;\r\n\/\/-->\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"\r\nsrc=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>Hurricane Sandy was a massive natural disaster that exacted a high human toll.<\/p>\n<p>It also impacted the national economy. In the short run, it certainly did considerable damage &#8212; sales were disrupted, stores forced to close, employees laid off, deliveries halted.<\/p>\n<p>There was an immediate spike in unemployment insurance claims because of the storm. <\/p>\n<p>In the latest release, we saw a week-over-week decline in initial unemployment claims of 25,000 to 370,000, but the 4-week moving average still went up because today&#8217;s report replaced a pre-Sandy report that was much lower. The 4-week average is 408,000.<\/p>\n<p>Calculated Risk has been blogging regularly about Sandy&#8217;s effects and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2012\/12\/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims.html\" target=\"_blank\">does so again today<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>This sharp increase in the 4 week average is due to Hurricane Sandy as claims increased significantly in NY, NJ and other impacted areas over the 4-week period (some of those areas saw another decline this week). Note the spike in 2005 was related to hurricane Katrina &#8211; we are seeing a similar impact, although on a smaller scale.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Note how we can see a pretty extreme spike in late 2005 related to Hurricane Katrina on CR&#8217;s graph:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/WeeklyClaimsDec62012.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"4353\" data-permalink=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2012\/12\/06\/hurricane-sandys-economic-impacts-tough-to-gauge\/weeklyclaimsdec62012\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/WeeklyClaimsDec62012-e1354808047115.jpg?fit=670%2C447\" data-orig-size=\"670,447\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"WeeklyClaimsDec62012\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/WeeklyClaimsDec62012-e1354808047115.jpg?fit=300%2C200\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/WeeklyClaimsDec62012-e1354808047115.jpg?fit=594%2C396\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/WeeklyClaimsDec62012-e1354808047115.jpg?resize=594%2C396\" alt=\"\" title=\"WeeklyClaimsDec62012\" width=\"594\" height=\"396\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4353\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Now, what does this mean for the release on Friday (tomorrow) of the payroll jobs numbers and unemployment rate in November?<\/p>\n<p>The consensus forecast is for 80,000 jobs created, but it&#8217;s really hard to guess how the numbers will look.<\/p>\n<p>We could see much lower job growth for November &#8212; or it could be that the worst effects of Sandy had already been handled by payroll employers by mid-month. ADP <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2012\/12\/adp-private-employment-increased-118000.html\" target=\"_blank\">estimates <\/a>that the private sector added 118,000 jobs in November, but their data have not tracked well with numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.<\/p>\n<p>We could also be seeing some slight impact on the jobs data because of the &#8220;fiscal cliff&#8221; negotiations. And we might have seen some slight impact last month because of the election results.<\/p>\n<p>I&#8217;m guessing that the numbers will show job growth above consensus, but it&#8217;s really just a roll of the dice at this point. <\/p>\n<div class=\"e26b170012445c56d240655bdd03f7bf\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:0px 0 0px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:inline-block;width:300px;height:250px\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-5595881567027133\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"4374909701\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hurricane Sandy certainly had an impact on jobs &#8212; a major one &#8212; but it&#8217;s hard to say just how bad tomorrow&#8217;s jobs data for November will be. <\/p>\n<p class=\"more-link-p\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2012\/12\/06\/hurricane-sandys-economic-impacts-tough-to-gauge\/\">Read more &rarr;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4353,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[4],"tags":[31],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/12\/WeeklyClaimsDec62012-e1354808047115.jpg?fit=670%2C447","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1gN9R-18c","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4352"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4352"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4352\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4353"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4352"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4352"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4352"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}