{"id":3032,"date":"2012-05-29T14:38:25","date_gmt":"2012-05-29T18:38:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/?p=3032"},"modified":"2012-05-30T18:40:04","modified_gmt":"2012-05-30T22:40:04","slug":"home-price-declines-whats-the-matter-with-atlanta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2012\/05\/29\/home-price-declines-whats-the-matter-with-atlanta\/","title":{"rendered":"Home price declines: What&#8217;s the matter with Atlanta?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"e26b170012445c56d240655bdd03f7bf\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: left; margin: 10px 10px 10px 0;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\r\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-5595881567027133\";\r\n\/* Medium Rectangle *\/\r\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"8584504377\";\r\ngoogle_ad_width = 300;\r\ngoogle_ad_height = 250;\r\n\/\/-->\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"\r\nsrc=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>Nationally, it looks like home prices have bottomed or are bottoming now. I <a href=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2012\/05\/29\/home-prices-at-new-post-bubble-lows-in-march-according-to-case-shiller\/\" target=\"_blank\">blogged earlier today<\/a> about the Case-Shiller indices being at fresh post-bubble lows, but that&#8217;s for March and includes sales as far back as January.<\/p>\n<p>Atlanta stands out, however, for having the nation&#8217;s worst current rate of decline. (For most of the rest of this post, I&#8217;m going to be using Case-Shiller&#8217;s <em>seasonally adjusted<\/em> data.)<\/p>\n<p>Atlanta did not see prices rise as fast during the bubble years as most other major U.S. metro areas. Atlanta&#8217;s peak value was 136.07 in April 2007.<\/p>\n<p>By April 2008, the index still was at 125.53. That&#8217;s a big decline but not a catastrophic one. Then it fell to about 107 by April 2009, but was virtually unchanged in April 2010, when it seemed to have stabilized. Of course, that was a false rebound brought on by the expiring homebuyer tax credits, which had also falsely boosted prices in the final months of 2009.<\/p>\n<p>Atlanta home prices apparently stabilized again in spring 2011, with the index value above 103 in February, March, and April.<\/p>\n<p>And then then the freefall began.<\/p>\n<p>Atlanta&#8217;s seasonally adjusted index value stands at 85.17 in the March 2012 data, a level that Atlanta first reached in summer 1997.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s Case-Shiller&#8217;s <em>not seasonally adjusted<\/em> chart showing how much worse Atlanta&#8217;s 17.7% year-over-year decline is than the other cities in the composite index:<br \/>\n<img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"3033\" data-permalink=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2012\/05\/29\/home-price-declines-whats-the-matter-with-atlanta\/screenshot_7-2\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Screenshot_7-e1338315072156.png?fit=670%2C517\" data-orig-size=\"670,517\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Screenshot_7\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Screenshot_7-e1338315072156.png?fit=300%2C231\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Screenshot_7-e1338315072156.png?fit=594%2C458\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3033\" title=\"Screenshot_7\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Screenshot_7-e1338315072156.png?resize=594%2C458\" alt=\"\" width=\"594\" height=\"458\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The only good news is that Atlanta&#8217;s slide seems to be near a bottom, with a monthly pace of decline lessening.<\/p>\n<p>Why is the Atlanta metro area faring so much worse right now than other cities?<\/p>\n<p>There would seem to be a variety of answers, including:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>a generally weak labor market (although Atlanta has looked better in recent data)<\/li>\n<li>a banking industry under incredible stress as it recovers from a prolonged period of irresponsible speculation<\/li>\n<li>the drag created by large numbers of underwater mortgages (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2012\/05\/24\/new-data-shows-homes-underwater-county-by-county\/\" target=\"_blank\">click here<\/a> for more)<\/li>\n<li>a poor understanding of the depth of the state&#8217;s housing crisis by policymakers in the years since \u00c2\u00a0the bust<\/li>\n<li>an inadequate transportation system to support some of the sprawling suburbs and exurbs planned during the boom<\/li>\n<li>cuts to state and local budgets that have further stressed labor markets<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Still, for all this recent decline, other cities have seen worse declines from peak to trough (let&#8217;s hope it&#8217;s a trough), as you can see in this graph from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2012\/05\/case-shiller-house-prices-fall-to-new.html\" target=\"_blank\">Calculated Risk<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"3034\" data-permalink=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2012\/05\/29\/home-price-declines-whats-the-matter-with-atlanta\/cscitiesmar2012\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/CSCitiesMar2012-e1338315897420.jpg?fit=670%2C404\" data-orig-size=\"670,404\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"CSCitiesMar2012\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/CSCitiesMar2012-e1338315897420.jpg?fit=300%2C181\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/CSCitiesMar2012-e1338315897420.jpg?fit=594%2C358\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-3034\" title=\"CSCitiesMar2012\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/CSCitiesMar2012-e1338315897420.jpg?resize=594%2C358\" alt=\"\" width=\"594\" height=\"358\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<div class=\"e26b170012445c56d240655bdd03f7bf\" data-index=\"2\" style=\"float: none; margin:0px 0 0px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script async src=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\r\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\"\r\n     style=\"display:inline-block;width:300px;height:250px\"\r\n     data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-5595881567027133\"\r\n     data-ad-slot=\"4374909701\"><\/ins>\r\n<script>\r\n(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Atlanta home prices fell 17.7% from March 2011 to March 2012.<\/p>\n<p><script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-5595881567027133\";\n\/* 2nd medium rectangle *\/\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"4374909701\";\ngoogle_ad_width = 300;\ngoogle_ad_height = 250;\n\/\/-->\n<\/script><br \/>\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"\nsrc=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\n<\/script><\/p>\n<p class=\"more-link-p\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2012\/05\/29\/home-price-declines-whats-the-matter-with-atlanta\/\">Read more &rarr;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3033,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[4],"tags":[84,194,9],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/Screenshot_7-e1338315072156.png?fit=670%2C517","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1gN9R-MU","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3032"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3032"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3032\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3033"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}