{"id":2743,"date":"2012-04-27T09:01:18","date_gmt":"2012-04-27T13:01:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/?p=2743"},"modified":"2012-04-27T09:01:18","modified_gmt":"2012-04-27T13:01:18","slug":"gdp-growth-in-1st-quarter-restrained-by-government-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2012\/04\/27\/gdp-growth-in-1st-quarter-restrained-by-government-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"GDP growth in 1st quarter restrained by government cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"e26b170012445c56d240655bdd03f7bf\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: left; margin: 10px 10px 10px 0;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\r\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-5595881567027133\";\r\n\/* Medium Rectangle *\/\r\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"8584504377\";\r\ngoogle_ad_width = 300;\r\ngoogle_ad_height = 250;\r\n\/\/-->\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"\r\nsrc=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>From the <a href=\"http:\/\/bea.gov\/newsreleases\/national\/gdp\/2012\/pdf\/gdp1q12_adv.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Bureau of Economic Analysis<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Real gross domestic product &#8212; the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States &#8212; increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the first quarter of 2012 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the &#8220;advance&#8221; estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter of 2011, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. <\/p>\n<p>The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The<br \/>\n&#8220;second&#8221; estimate for the first quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on May 31, 2012. <\/p>\n<p>The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, and residential fixed<br \/>\ninvestment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, and state and local government spending.  Imports, which are a<br \/>\nsubtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. <\/p>\n<p>The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in private<br \/>\ninventory investment and a downturn in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by<br \/>\naccelerations in PCE and in exports. <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>This advance estimate is subject to significant revisions in the future &#8212; a full percentage point up or down is entirely likely.<\/p>\n<p>This is slightly below most estimates and somewhat disappointing &#8212; the U.S. economy will need faster growth to recoup all the ground lost in the 2007-2009 recession. <\/p>\n<p>Without the drag on GDP from government cuts, the rate would have been a much more respectable 2.8%. The federal government alone made a -.46% contribution to this estimate, almost entirely from military spending.<\/p>\n<p>Private residential investment contributed .4%. Even with new construction subdued still, the fact that it&#8217;s now making a positive contribution to GDP is critically important for sustaining the recovery.<\/p>\n<p>The biggest concern I have about this: Did the warm winter months actually boost economic activity, so the seasonal adjustment is actually giving us data that overstates the already-slow pace of recovery?<\/p>\n<p>A graph from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\" target=\"_blank\">Calculated Risk<\/a>:<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/GDPQ12012.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"2744\" data-permalink=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2012\/04\/27\/gdp-growth-in-1st-quarter-restrained-by-government-cuts\/gdpq12012\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/GDPQ12012-e1335531405117.jpg?fit=670%2C443\" data-orig-size=\"670,443\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"GDPQ12012\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/GDPQ12012-e1335531405117.jpg?fit=300%2C198\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/GDPQ12012-e1335531405117.jpg?fit=594%2C393\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/GDPQ12012-e1335531405117.jpg?resize=594%2C393\" alt=\"\" title=\"GDPQ12012\" width=\"594\" height=\"393\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-2744\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"e26b170012445c56d240655bdd03f7bf\" data-index=\"4\" style=\"float: none; margin:4px 0 4px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\r\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-5595881567027133\";\r\n\/* Another large rectangle *\/\r\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"0042810896\";\r\ngoogle_ad_width = 336;\r\ngoogle_ad_height = 280;\r\n\/\/-->\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"\r\nsrc=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The economy grew at a 2.2% annual rate in the first quarter, according to the advance estimate that is subject to major revision. Cuts to military spending restrained growth while new residential investment added to it.<\/p>\n<p class=\"more-link-p\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2012\/04\/27\/gdp-growth-in-1st-quarter-restrained-by-government-cuts\/\">Read more &rarr;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2744,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[4],"tags":[260,194,259,25,258],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/04\/GDPQ12012-e1335531405117.jpg?fit=670%2C443","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1gN9R-If","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2743"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2743"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2743\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2744"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}