{"id":1519,"date":"2011-11-07T16:57:48","date_gmt":"2011-11-07T21:57:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/?p=1519"},"modified":"2011-11-07T16:57:48","modified_gmt":"2011-11-07T21:57:48","slug":"corelogic-predictably-shows-home-prices-falling-in-september-but-how-much-more","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2011\/11\/07\/corelogic-predictably-shows-home-prices-falling-in-september-but-how-much-more\/","title":{"rendered":"CoreLogic predictably shows home prices falling in September &#8212; but how much more?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"e26b170012445c56d240655bdd03f7bf\" data-index=\"1\" style=\"float: left; margin: 10px 10px 10px 0;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\r\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-5595881567027133\";\r\n\/* Medium Rectangle *\/\r\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"8584504377\";\r\ngoogle_ad_width = 300;\r\ngoogle_ad_height = 250;\r\n\/\/-->\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"\r\nsrc=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n<p>I&#8217;ve been writing for ages about the inevitability of continued declines in home prices. Today&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.corelogic.com\/about-us\/news\/corelogic-september-home-price-index-shows-second-consecutive-month-over-month-and-year-over-year-decline.aspx\" target=\"_blank\">release <\/a>of CoreLogic&#8217;s Home Price Index pretty much confirms that that trend has arrived.<\/p>\n<p>CoreLogic&#8217;s HPI is not seasonally adjusted, and we&#8217;ve now hit the slower season when prices are traditionally under pressure. We&#8217;re also well over a year beyond the expiration of the last homebuyer tax credits, a well-intentioned but completely misguided policy that has dragged out the housing crisis.<\/p>\n<p>According to CoreLogic, which is along with Case-Shiller one of the most watched indices: <\/p>\n<blockquote><p>CoreLogic\u00c2\u00ae (NYSE: CLGX), a leading provider of information, analytics and business services, today released its September Home Price Index (HPI\u00c2\u00ae) which shows that<strong> home prices in the U.S. decreased 1.1 percent on a month-over-month <\/strong>basis, the second consecutive monthly decline. According to the CoreLogic HPI, <strong>national home prices, including distressed sales, also declined by 4.1 percent in September 2011 compared to September 2010<\/strong>.  This follows a decline of 4.4 percent* in August 2011 compared to August 2010.  <strong>Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices declined by 1.1 percent in September 2011 compared to September 2010 and by 2.2* percent in August 2011 compared to August 2010<\/strong>.  Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.     <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>On a year-over-year basis, Georgia home prices in September were down 7.2% compared to a year ago including distressed sales. Excluding distressed sales, Georgia home prices fell 3.6% in September 2011 from September 2010.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ll continue to see home prices struggle &#8212; and probably fall &#8212; at least until the spring buying season gets rolling. As Calculated Risk notes <a href=\"http:\/\/www.calculatedriskblog.com\/2011\/11\/corelogic-house-price-index-declined-11.html\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>, we&#8217;re still a few percentage points above the lowest home price levels from March 2011, but it was entirely predictable that a not-seasonally-adjusted index would register gains over the summer &#8212; and declines now.<\/p>\n<p>How much more will they drop? With listed inventory decreasing and with the economy slowly adding jobs, maybe just a little. Or we could still see a significant downturn. September&#8217;s numbers suggest the latter is more likely than the former.<\/p>\n<p>Here&#8217;s an updated graph from Calculated Risk:<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/CoreLogicSept2011.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" data-attachment-id=\"1520\" data-permalink=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2011\/11\/07\/corelogic-predictably-shows-home-prices-falling-in-september-but-how-much-more\/corelogicsept2011\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/CoreLogicSept2011-e1320702940173.jpg?fit=659%2C462\" data-orig-size=\"659,462\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"CoreLogicSept2011\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/CoreLogicSept2011-e1320702940173.jpg?fit=300%2C210\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/CoreLogicSept2011-e1320702940173.jpg?fit=594%2C416\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/CoreLogicSept2011-e1320702940173.jpg?resize=594%2C416\" alt=\"\" title=\"CoreLogicSept2011\" width=\"594\" height=\"416\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-1520\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"e26b170012445c56d240655bdd03f7bf\" data-index=\"4\" style=\"float: none; margin:4px 0 4px 0; text-align:center;\">\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"><!--\r\ngoogle_ad_client = \"ca-pub-5595881567027133\";\r\n\/* Another large rectangle *\/\r\ngoogle_ad_slot = \"0042810896\";\r\ngoogle_ad_width = 336;\r\ngoogle_ad_height = 280;\r\n\/\/-->\r\n<\/script>\r\n<script type=\"text\/javascript\"\r\nsrc=\"http:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/show_ads.js\">\r\n<\/script>\n<\/div>\n\n<!--CusAds0-->\n<div style=\"font-size: 0px; height: 0px; line-height: 0px; margin: 0; padding: 0; clear: both;\"><\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;ve been writing for ages about the inevitability of continued declines in home prices. Today&#8217;s release of CoreLogic&#8217;s Home Price Index pretty much confirms that that trend has arrived. CoreLogic&#8217;s HPI is not seasonally adjusted, and we&#8217;ve now hit the&hellip;<\/p>\n<p class=\"more-link-p\"><a class=\"more-link\" href=\"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/2011\/11\/07\/corelogic-predictably-shows-home-prices-falling-in-september-but-how-much-more\/\">Read more &rarr;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1520,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[4],"tags":[9],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/11\/CoreLogicSept2011-e1320702940173.jpg?fit=659%2C462","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p1gN9R-ov","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1519"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1519"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1519\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1520"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1519"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1519"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.billdawers.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1519"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}