The final path and intensity of the storm also meant that New Orleans would be spared truly catastrophic wind damage.

But then sometime late on that Monday morning in 2005, I heard a TV news report of a levee breach, accompanied by an inane reassurance that New Orleans was not filling up like a bowl of water. Since much of the city is below sea level, there was no way that some neighborhoods couldn’t be filling up. Of course, as it turned out, there wasn’t just a single levee breach, and all areas of the city were already flooded or were flooding up to at least sea level.

In the immediate aftermath of those breaches, the Corps of Engineers tried to place some of the blame on corruption of New Orleans officials, but just last week a Corps official backed way off from those accusations. From Nola.com on August 22 of this year, Corps of Engineers critic repeats accusations of shoddy work:

Rosenthal also took the corps to task for its past accusations that New Orleans officials bore some responsibility for the canal failures because they pressured the corps to pursue an inferior storm protection plan. For instance, she said the corps blamed local officials for forcing it to reinforce the canal walls rather than build floodgates without pumps at the mouth of the three outfall canals.

The commanding general of the corps in Katrinaâ€s aftermath, Lt. Gen. Carl Strock, told the New York Times in June 2006 that the corps accepted responsibility for the levee failures. Earlier this year, he told The Times-Picayune that his statements about local officials†roles were not intended to be deceitful.

“Throughout our response to Katrina I emphasized how critical it was to be transparent and honest if we were to regain the trust of the public,” he said. “I might have illustrated my description with things I had heard but not personally researched, but there was absolutely no intent to deceive anyone.”

Rosenthal made a public-records request for any documents that supported the corps†allegations that they were pressured to build up the canal walls and not install floodgates. In February, Ken Holder, chief of public affairs for the corps†New Orleans District office, responded that the corps couldnâ€t determine which documents Strock and his second-in-command, Major Gen. Don Riley, used to make such claims.[. . .]

Rosenthal said Wednesday that “the evidence speaks for itself.” She added: “It seems pretty clear that the reason the corps canâ€t produce the data is because it doesnâ€t exist.”

Next, let me share two images from Tulane geology professor Stephen A. Nelson’s amazing field guide to the Katrina levee breaks, Hurricane Katrina – What Happened?. My sister Nancye is one of Nelson’s colleagues. First, a map of New Orleans in 1878, showing development on the highest ground, and then a map from the Times-Picayune showing the depths of the flooding about two weeks after the storm:

Here’s the official Katrina forecast map at 11 p.m. on August 26, 2005:

Here’s the official Isaac forecast map at 8 p.m. on August 26, 2012:

Here’s the latest on Isaac’s likely storm surge levels from Nola.com:

The threat to southeastern Louisiana is likely to include storm surges of between 6 and 12 feet above sea level, up to 12 inches of rain, with 20 inches possible in some locations, and sustained winds of 100 mph and higher gusts for much of the coast, depending on the exact location of the storm, according to the Slidell office of the National Weather Service. Its forecast calls for winds of 60 to 80 miles per hour on the north and south sides of Lake Pontchartrain, with gusts to 100 mph.

Water levels are likely to reach 5 to 7 feet above sea level in Lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas, and 7 to 11 feet in Lake Borgne and south along the coast on the east side of the Mississippi River. West of the river, water heights could reach 9 feet.

National Hurricane Center Science and Operations Officer Chris Landsea said Sunday that while still only a tropical storm with sustained winds of 60 mph on Sunday, Isaac is huge, with tropicalstorm-force winds extending out 200 miles from its center.

So, barring a rather dramatic change in the track, this looks like the first really big test of the New Orleans levee system since Katrina. Those levees have obviously been repaired, but well enough?

I know everyone wants to project a sense of calm and confidence, but I think it’s inexplicable that New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu has not called for an evacuation of all neighborhoods below sea level. By tomorrow morning, we’ll already by within 36 hours of projected landfall. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal has called for voluntary evacuations in a number of parishes but sounds confident in levee protection:

State and local officials are taking a number of steps to protect our people and property from the storm. In addition to issuing a State of Emergency for the storm, we are in touch with parish leaders and we are recommending voluntary evacuations within the hurricane watch area. Specifically, this is for people in low lying areas, areas outside of levee protection, and areas south of the Intracoastal Waterway.

From Poynter’s Donald Newhouse rebuffs request to sell Times-Picayune:

Donald Newhouse has rebuffed a strongly-worded letter from a group of heavy-hitters in New Orleans to sell The Times-Picayune rather than cut daily printing. The Times-Picayune Citizens Group wrote in a letter delivered Monday:

“It is painful to report that right now it is nearly impossible to find a kind word in these parts about your family or your plan to take away our daily newspaper … If your family does not believe in the future of this great city and its capacity to support a daily newspaper, it is only fair to allow us to find someone who does.
Newhouse, however, isnâ€t interested.”

“We have read the letter with great respect and concern,” said Donald E. Newhouse, president of Advance Publications, owner of the paper. “Advance Publications has no intention of selling The Times-Picayune.”

Both NOLA.com and Gambit say the group has lined up a buyer for the paper, citing an unnamed source.

Another excerpt from the letter to Newhouse, followed by a list of those who signed it:

Unfortunately and sadly, the considerable goodwill your family enterprise has created in New Orleans in the last 50 years has dissipated in just a few short months because of the decision that took our entire community by surprise. Advance Publications and its leadership have lost the trust and credibility of a significant segment of the community. Citizens have publically protested the proposed new format; prominent civic and business leaders and advertisers have stepped up to speak out against the plan, and an online petition is climbing toward 10,000 signatures, including celebrities like Ed Asner and Garrison Keillor and ordinary New Orleanians whose comments are a tribute to the towering impact of the newspaper you built. Clearly, the voices of our community are strongly opposed to what you are doing.

It is painful to report that right now it is nearly impossible to find a kind word in these parts about your family or your plan to take away our daily newspaper. Our community leaders believe that your decision is undermining the important work we continue to face in rebuilding New Orleans. Whether you intended to or not, you have already created the impression that our recovery is so tepid that we cannot support an important civic institution like a daily newspaper. [. . .]

If you have ever valued the friendship you have shared with our city and your loyal readers, we ask that you sell the Times-Picayune. Our city wants a daily printed paper, needs a daily printed paper and deserves a daily printed paper.

Archbishop Gregory M. Aymond
Archdiocese of New Orleans

Mary Matalin

James Carville

Steve Roberts

Cokie B. Roberts

Wynton Marsalis

Scott Cowen
President Tulane University

Norman C. Francis
President Xavier University

Kevin Wildes, S.J.
President Loyola University New Orleans

Ralph O. Brennan

Archie Manning

Wendell Pierce

I have some family in New Orleans, and I’ve read the New Orleans Times-Picayune enough to know that it has some issues. But the paper and its website NOLA.com did simply an amazing job during and after Hurricane Katrina, and they’ve been a vital platform for the community in the years since. Ironically, the permanent population loss in the aftermath of Katrina contributed today’s bad news.

Today there’s this at NOLA.com today: New digitally focused company launches this fall with beefed up online coverage; The Times-Picayune will move this fall to three printed papers a week

From that piece (emphases added):

NOLA Media Group will significantly increase its online news-gathering efforts 24 hours a day, seven days a week, while offering enhanced printed newspapers on a schedule of three days a week. The newspaper will be home-delivered and sold in stores on Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays only. A second new company, Advance Central Services, will print and deliver the newspaper. Both of the new companies are owned by Advance Publications.

The decision to form a new company signals a change in the way news is delivered to an increasingly wired New Orleans area audience, said Mathews. Jim Amoss, currently editor of The Times-Picayune, will run the combined content operation of NOLA Media Group.

“The Times-Picayune, under Jim’s direction, is one of the finest newspapers in the country,” said Mathews, “and NOLA.com is the number one news site in Louisiana. Our best path to success lies in a digitally focused organization that combines the award-winning journalism of The Times-Picayune and the strength of NOLA.com.”

Mathews said the three days of publication were chosen in part so that the print edition is distributed across the entire week, but also because Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays have proved to be the most valuable days for the newspaper’s advertisers.

Today's NOLA homepage -- really?

And I’m even more stunned by the sheer ugliness and user unfriendliness of this new website. From the landing screen at the New York Times, without even scrolling down, one can read stock summaries and link to 10 or more articles; The Washington Post offers even more links than that to quality content from the landing screen on a decent sized monitor. The Savannah Morning News website offers a changing column of latest headlines plus easy links to top stories in all the sections.

Without scrolling, this cluttered new Nola.com homepage offers a grand total of 3 links to substantive articles.

From the Associated Press:

Advance also said Thursday that three major daily newspapers that it owns in Alabama will switch to publishing three days a week as part of a new focus on online news: The Birmingham News, The Huntsville Times and the Press-Register of Mobile.

Advance also owns The Oregonian in Portland, Ore.; The Plain Dealer in Cleveland; and The Star-Ledger in Newark, N.J.

Steve Myers, a managing editor at the Poynter Institute, said the Times-Picayune would become the largest metropolitan newspaper to shift away from daily circulation.

“Advertising is suffering at many newspapers, and the Picayune has had difficulty because the population didn’t come back after Katrina,” Myers said.