All of this data is through March, by the way, and includes data from January, February, and March. So there’s a considerable lag to the Case-Shiller numbers.

From the press release, which can be downloaded here:

Data through March 2013, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that all three composites posted double-digit annual increases. The 10-City and 20-City Composites increased by 10.3% and 10.9% in the year to March with the national composite rising by 10.2% in the last four quarters. All 20 cities posted positive year-over-year growth.

And this:

“Home prices continued to climb,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Home prices in all 20 cities posted annual gains for the third month in a row. Twelve of the 20 saw prices rise at double-digit annual growth. The National Index and the 10- and 20-City Composites posted their highest annual returns since 2006.

“Phoenix again had the largest annual increase at 22.5% followed by San Francisco with 22.2% and Las Vegas with 20.6%. Miami and Tampa, the eastern end of the Sunbelt, were softer with annual gains of 10.7% and 11.8%. The weakest annual price gains were seen in New York (+2.6%), Cleveland (+4.8%) and Boston (+6.7%); even these numbers are quite substantial.

“Other housing market data reported in recent weeks confirm these strong trends: housing starts and permits, sales of new home and existing homes continue to trend higher. At the same time, the larger than usual share of multi-family housing, a large number of homes still in some stage of foreclosure and buying-to-rent by investors suggest that the housing recovery is not complete.”

I’ve been surprised by the vigorousness of the rebound in prices, but there are a couple of key things that I did not adequately take into account: 1) the demand from potential homebuyers who accumulated cash and waited till prices bottomed and 2) the upward pressure on prices caused by the continuation of low interest rates.

Still, home prices are only back to the level first reached in 2003, as you can see on the Case-Shiller graph below, which combines both year-over-year percentage increases and nominal price levels on the index.

When adjusted for inflation, the rebound in prices has only gotten us back to a level first hit around the turn of the century, as you can see on this graph from Calculated Risk:

A simple look at these graphs suggests that home prices might continue to rise, but there’s little reason to expect dramatic increases above the historical trend line. When the Fed eventually unwinds its stimulative measures and interest rates increase, that will also restrain price increases.

We can begin to see when the national housing market returns to something like normal, even if there will continue to be large variations in different cities.

Today’s release covers the 20-city composite index, the 10-city composite index, and the national home price index that’s released quarterly.

This release is for September, but Case-Shiller uses data for three-month spans, which means that today’s numbers include sales all the way back to July.

From the press release Home Prices Rise for the Sixth Straight Month; According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices:

Data through September 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that home prices continued to rise in the third quarter of 2012. The national composite was up 3.6% in the third quarter of 2012 versus the third quarter of 2011, and was up 2.2% versus the second quarter of 2012.

In September 2012, the 10- and 20-City Composites showed annual returns of +2.1% and +3.0%. Average home prices in the 10- and 20-City Composites were each up by 0.3% in September versus August 2012. Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted better annual returns in September versus August 2012; Detroit and Washington D.C. recorded a slight deceleration in their annual rates, and New York saw no change.

A couple of graphs from the press release — the first shows the percentage change in each index year-over-year:

And here’s the national index, showing both the nominal value and the year-over-year change:

And this from Calculated Risk, which adjusts the S&P/Case-Shiller data for inflation. This looks to be right where it should be:

From Case-Shiller:

The 10- and 20-City Composites recorded annual returns of +1.3% and +2.0% in August 2012 – an
improvement over the +0.6% and +1.2% respective annual rates posted for July 2012. Eighteen of the 20 cities and both Composites posted better annual returns in August compared to July 2012. Annual returns for Dallas remained unchanged at +3.6% and Chicago saw its annual return worsen from -1.0% in July to -1.6% in August 2012. Only three cities posted negative annual returns in August: Atlanta with -6.1%, New York at -2.3% and Chicago at -1.6%. Phoenix posted its fourth consecutive month double-digit increase in annual rates with a recording of +18.8% in August 2012. It is the best performing city among the 20 cities followed by S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Please note, however, that Atlanta’s prices are now trending rather solidly up after cratering over the winter.

A graph and chart showing both general and city-specific trends:

As I’ve noted recently in a City Talk column, it appears that Savannah metro home prices have bottomed too.

The data here are not adjusted for seasonality, so we could see much softer numbers in the coming months. That won’t be a cause for alarm.

Also, in recent years, seasonal changes have been larger than usual seasonal adjustments, in part because of the steady stream of distressed properties on the market.

Anyway, those are the warnings, but this post is really good news.

From Home Prices Increase Again in July 2012 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices:

Data through July 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed average home prices increased by 1.5% for the 10-City Composite and by 1.6% for the 20-City Composite in July versus June 2012.For the third consecutive month, all 20 cities and both Composites recorded positive monthly changes. It would have been a fourth had prices not fallen by 0.6% in Detroit back in April.

The 10- and 20-City Composites posted annual returns of +0.6% and +1.2% in July 2012, up from their unchanged and +0.6% annual rates posted for June 2012. Fifteen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted better annual returns in July as compared to June 2012. Dallas and Washington D.C. saw no change in their annual rates; and Cleveland, Detroit and New York saw their rates worsen in July, with respective returns of +0.4%, +6.2% and -2.6%. After nine consecutive months of double digit annual declines, Atlanta finally improved to a -9.9% annual rate in July 2012, but still the worst among the 20 cities followed by S&P Dow Jones Indices.

So the year-over-year number looks bad for Atlanta, but the more recent data suggests that Atlanta is well off the bottom.

More from the press release:

Case-Shiller has been headlining not seasonally adjusted data, but you can see the difference here when the seasonal adjustment is made:

Even if home prices soften somewhat this fall and winter (we’re almost certain to see some not seasonally adjusted declines month to month), this provides more evidence that prices will generally continue rebounding from their lows of recent years.

Data through May 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that average home prices increased by 2.2% in May over April for both the 10- and 20-City Composites. With Mayâ€s data, we found that home prices fell annually by 1.0% for the 10-City Composite and by 0.7% for the 20-City Composite versus May 2011. Both Composites and 17 of the 20 MSAs saw increases in annual returns in May compared to April. Boston, Charlotte and Detroit were the three cities that saw
their annual returns worsen in May, with annual rates of -0.1%, +0.9% and +0.6%, respectively. Atlanta continues to be the only city posting a double-digit negative annual return with -14.5%. However, this is an improvement over the -17.0% annual decline recorded in April 2012. All 20 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly returns. No cities posted new lows in May 2012.

Please note that Case-Shiller is focusing on data that has not been seasonally adjusted. We would expect house prices to rise slightly in the spring, but even if we factor in a seasonal adjustment, only two of the 20 cities saw prices lower in May than in April — Detroit and Charlotte — and those declines were so small as to be negligible.

There are some places in the U.S. that could see stagnant or falling home prices for months, years, or even generations. And I haven’t seen any credible rationale to expect a sharp increase in prices over the next couple of years.

But this stabilization in prices sure seems like great news.

Click here for Calculated Risk’s latest discussion of home prices, including excellent graphs.

Some additional charts and data from today’s release:

Data through April 2012, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that on average home prices increased 1.3% in the month of April for both the 10- and 20-City Composites. This comes after seven consecutive months of falling home prices as measured by both indices.

Aprilâ€s data indicate that on an annual basis home prices fell by 2.2% for the 10-City Composite and by 1.9% for the 20-City Composites, versus April 2011. While still negative, this is an improvement over the annual rates of -2.9% and -2.6% recorded for the month of March 2012. Both Composites and 18 of the 20 MSAs saw increases in annual returns in April compared to those published for March; only Detroit and New York fared worse in April, posting annual returns of +1.2% and -3.8% respectively, falling below their March returns of +3.9% and -3.0%. For the seventh consecutive month, Atlanta posted the only doubledigit negative annual return at -17.0%, its 22nd consecutive month of negative annual returns. Ten of the 20 MSAs saw positive annual returns – Boston, Charlotte, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Miami, Minneapolis, Phoenix, Tampa and Washington D.C. No cities posted new lows in April 2012.

We are a long way from a “normal” housing market, whatever that will look like post-recovery, but the widespread price stabilization is good news for a variety of reasons:

• panicking sellers fearful of further declines might be less likely to list their houses, thus decreasing inventory
• buyers waiting for or hoping for another tumble in prices might now be more likely to make offers, thus decreasing inventory
• stabilizing prices also means stabilization in net worth for many households in the country, which should spur other spending and investment

A few graphs from the S&P press release this morning:

The picture is pretty bad in the rest of the Savannah metro area too, with Bryan County at 30% and Effingham County at 38%.

Many and probably most of those mortgages will not result in foreclosures or short sales — folks will just keep paying because they can afford to and have no other options.

That’s just one issue that remains a drag on the local market.

While it’s looking increasingly like home prices nationally might have bottomed or might literally be bottoming right now (several home indices are showing more or less stable prices and Case-Shiller for March is expected to show minimal declines on average), the same can’t necessarily be said about metro Savannah home prices.

The national leveling off makes sense for at least three separate reasons:

• The price-to-rent ratio has returned to an acceptable level, meaning that in many areas home prices and mortgage rates have fallen to the point that buying is now competitive with renting.
• Home prices overall have fallen close to the historical trend line, with price appreciation just slightly above the inflation rate.
• The inventory of existing homes listed for sale has fallen nationally to 6.6 months. That’s still a bit high, but far off the peak — in other words, more sellers will manage to sell sooner than in recent years.

A graph from Calculated Risk:

As you can see, we’ve seen dramatic reductions over last year in the amount of inventory listed for sale, and the months of supply has fallen dramatically because of increased sales and decreased listings. Note that Calculated Risk has drawn a line at the 6-month mark, which is often described as the level at which a housing market is “balanced”. Note, however, that in the early part of this century the inventory was in the 4-5 month range.

As you look hopefully at the falling inventory, keep in mind that we’re going to see an unusually large number of distressed properties continue to come on the market  for perhaps a few years, and we’re going to see tighter lending standards in place for the foreseeable future. Add in a struggling job market (in part because of the weakness in new home construction).

Keep in mind too that 6.6 months is the national average.

In April, the Savannah area MLS had 3,694 residential listings vs. 363 sales (April sales were actually a little less than March). Click here for more data.

That’s 10.2 months of inventory. We have an unusually high level of inventory, especially at some of the higher price points.

And if anyone tries to tell you that the inventory level is back to normal or that the Savannah area is somehow exceptional, don’t believe them. Our inventory has fallen from 13.8 months in April 2011, but it’s still too high to suggest stable home prices.

But there are other forces that might help stabilize home prices, especially the price-to-rent ratio I noted above.

So I doubt we’ll see a broad across-the-board tumble from here, but we’ll likely see continued declines in many areas, however slight. And there’s absolutely no reason to expect any significant appreciation, except perhaps in areas that collapsed under the weight of distressed sales.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices are 3-month composites, so this release covers data stretching all the way back into 2011.

Many analysts think that home prices nationally may have bottomed in March or are bottoming right now. I’m not so sure about that, but even if we have hit bottom, there’s no reason to expect any sort of quick rebound. And many markets could see continued declines for the next couple of years.

From this morning’s press release:

Data through February 2012, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed annual declines of 3.6% and 3.5% for the 10- and 20-City Composites, respectively. This is an improvement over the annual rates posted for the month of January, -4.1% and -3.9%, respectively. In addition to the two Composites, 15 of the 20 MSAs posted better annual returns in February compared to January; Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland and Detroit fared worse in February and Washington DCâ€s rate remained unchanged. Nine MSAs and both Composites posted new cycle lows as of February 2012. Atlanta had the only double-digit negative annual return at -17.3%. This was the fifth consecutive month of double-digit negative returns for Atlanta and the lowest annual return in its 20-year history

A graph:

And a chart:

I’ll have more to say about this later.