I’ve corresponded very occasionally with McBride via email. Despite the fact that his blog gets huge amounts of traffic, he always responds promptly and politely. (I was a little late in joining the game, but I’m currently tied for 4th place for the year in Calculated Risk’s economic predictions contest.)

Joe Weisenthal has a great interview with McBride today at Business Insider: The Genius Who Invented Economics Blogging Reveals How He Got Everything Right And What’s Coming Next

From that lengthy piece:

I hate to say it, but this is the most optimistic Iâ€ve been since the 90s. Iâ€m not a roaring bull, but looking forward, this is the best shape weâ€ve been in since â€97 or something.
In 97, I started worrying about what was going to happen when the stock bubble burst. By the time you got to the decent part of the Bush economy 2004-2005, I was so worried about housing I didnâ€t think much about the economy. Looking forward, this is the best weâ€ve been since then. We have plenty of problems to work through, but gosh, housing is going to be a tailwind for some time.

As McBride notes — calmly, patiently, and apolitically — there are all sorts of potential headwinds, especially from the situation in Europe. He’s less worried, btw, about the fiscal “slope”, which isn’t a single firm deadline and which is entirely solvable.

Years ago, a few friends — and I suspect a lot of readers — called me Mr. Doom and Gloom, a phrase that also appears a few times in the BI piece today. But I was just going where the data was leading me. When I first started writing in earnest about the Savannah housing market, things were bad and about to get much, much worse. Now things are weak, but steadily getting better. Ditto for local, state, and national employment, which is still in bad shape but clearly improving.

Paul Krugman has also chimed in today on his blog about McBride’s contributions to sober, fact-based discourse.

A personal note: I’d like to thank Governor Romney for his personal sacrifice. I believe he is a decent man, and I think everyone should appreciate the sacrifice all candidates made in running for office (I’d never do it, even at the local level). I also think President Obama is a decent man, and I remain optimistic about the future.

And about the fiscal “cliff”, which is not really cliff and which does not have a hard deadline of January 1:

1) The top marginal tax rate will increase from 35% to 39.6%. The details still need to be worked out (at what income the highest bracket will start, and what happens with dividends and capital gains). The it is pretty clear the top tax rate will increase.

2) The payroll tax cut is probably going away. This was the 2% payroll tax reduction that workers received in 2010 and 2011. For a family with a $50,000 per year income, this is a tax increase of about $20 per week.

3) The Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) relief will probably be extended (it is every year).

4) Given that the top marginal tax rate will increase – and that certain politicians can’t vote for any bill with a tax increase – the agreement will probably be voted on in January after the Bush tax cuts expire.

Here’s CR’s graph of the history of the top marginal tax rate:

An increase in the top tax rate is just one small move that could help address the deficit and debt. There’s essentially no historical correlation that suggests that a slight increase in that rate will damage the economy.