14 search results for "Gallup"

A long look at possible problems with Gallup’s presidential polling model

In the days leading up to and after the November election, I made a number of posts about Gallup’s obviously flawed presidential polling. All of those posts argued in some way that the esteemed polling firm’s likely voter modeling was…

USA Today and its readers are the clear winners as newspaper splits with Gallup

It seems like Gallup’s leadership has not learned from its weak work in the 2012 election. Let’s hope USA Today will be more responsible in its election coverage from now on.

Gallup defends (?) its erratic presidential polling results; Paul Ryan says results were “a shock” on election night

Really? Even on election night, with North Carolina too close to call deep into the night, with Obama performing well in Virginia and Florida, with states like Iowa and Colorado showing good returns for Obama — even with all that going on, Ryan thought they were in a position to win until Ohio was called?

Nate Silver ranks the pollsters — in a bad, bad year for Gallup

Nate Silver and his team at FiveThirtyEight are still at it. And I sincerely suggest that journalists interested in giving accurate information in elections spend some time reading his wonky post-mortems.

What’s up with Gallup tracking poll giving Romney a big lead?

Gallup’s daily updated tracking poll of the presidential race shows Romney with a solid 6 point lead.

Gallup: Percentage of uninsured varies widely across the country

I don’t know how long it will be before the Supreme Court rules on the constitutionality of the individual mandate and on so-called Obamacare generally, but there’s no escaping the problems posed by the high numbers of uninsured Americans. Take…

Nate Silver on internal vs. independent polls (i.e., did Romney’s team really believe its own hype?) (UPDATED 12/4)

Another dry, wordy, must-read from Nate Sliver at FiveThirtyEight about the most puzzling question of campaign 2012: Why were Romney and his team so surprised by the election night results, when statistical models showed them trailing significantly in the states that mattered most?

New studies: gay voters another crucial bloc that overwhelmingly backed Obama

Obama’s statements in support of same sex marriage have certainly helped his standing with gay voters, who also tend to take other socially liberal positions. But there are plenty of gay voters who hold libertarian or fiscally conservative views who could conceivably be convinced to vote Republican, no matter a politician’s stand on a single issue like gay marriage.

My electoral college prediction: Obama 332, Romney 206

Here’s my guess: I think the turnout will be slightly better than the consensus predictions for Democrats generally and African Americans specifically. That will push Obama easily past 270, even though he’s likely to get only about 51 percent of the vote and to lose at least a couple of states that he took in 2008 — Indiana and North Carolina.

The electoral map five days before the election

The state level polling is consistently showing Obama headed for something around 300 electoral votes. Obama is apparently ahead in Ohio, which would seem almost certain to guarantee him the election, but he also has other paths to 270 with states where he apparently has even narrower leads: New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, and Virginia. Florida looks very close too, but an average of state polling puts Romney slightly ahead.


Gay marriage, changing demographics, and Maurice Sendak

Any time I think of Maurice Sendak, I have vivid memories — quick, sharp ones — of our house on Knollwood Street in Frankfort, Kentucky.

Marijuana in Georgia

Will prison reform bill result in fewer arrests and shorter sentences?

Peter Kageyama: “For the Love of Cities” and the small things that increase civic engagement

In my City Talk column today, I talk about how inordinately happy I was to be able to buy beer last Sunday — even though I didn’t actually buy beer and will hardly ever take advantage of the newly legalized…

Debt problems weren’t a crisis, but will become one with default

President Obama – and presumably the Congressional Democrats that he thought he had on board – offered some big concessions last week in terms of the debt and deficits. No matter where they come from, $3 trillion in cuts including…