Politics

Newt Gingrich “runs away with the Georgia primary,” according to new poll from SurveyUSA

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A new poll from SurveyUSA shows Georgian Newt Gingrich with a huge lead among likely voters in the state’s Republican primary.

Of course, the primary isn’t scheduled until March 6th, so lots could obviously happen between now and then. Still, the results are interesting.

From SurveyUSA’s In Georgia Primary, There is Favorite Son Newt Gingrich, Leading By 4:1 Over Barely Visible Mitt Romney, with No One Else in Sight:

Newt Gingrich of Georgia runs away with the Georgia primary, in small part because fellow Georgian Herman Cain has dropped out of the race, and in large part because every part of the Republican Party has united behind him, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WXIA-TV Atlanta.4 weeks until the first vote is cast in Iowa and 3 months until the last Super Tuesday vote is counted in Georgia, it’s Gingrich 65%, Mitt Romney 12%, and everyone else far back.

Among likely Georgia primary voters, Gingrich’s support is above 60% among both pro-life and pro-choice voters, among both rich and poor voters, both evangelical and non-evangelical voters, males and females, conservatives and moderates, educated and uneducated, and in every region of the state. Only among Independents, who are eligible to vote in the Georgia Republican primary, does Ron Paul creep up to 16%, but Gingrich still leads Paul among Independents by 3:1.

By the time Super Tuesday comes around 03/06/12, it is possible that only Gingrich and Romney will be the only two candidates left battling for the Republican nomination. SurveyUSA finds important learning in a head-to-head match-up between Gingrich and Romney. 70% of primary voters who would vote for Gingrich in a head-to-head match-up say they do so enthusiastically. 52% of those who would vote for Romney in a head-to-head match-up say they do so “with reservations.”

In other news, SurveyUSA finds both Gingrich and Romney comfortably ahead of Obama in head-to-head polling: “Among all registered Georgia voters, Gingrich defeats Obama 48% to 42%, and Romney defeats Obama 49% to 42%.”

There’s an interesting post at Peach Pundit, however, that suggests that SurveyUSA underestimated the black turnout by at least a couple of percentage points. I’d be surprised if Obama were to lose the state by more than the 5% that McCain won by in 2008.

There are some other interesting tidbits in the SurveyUSA crosstabs. For example, Obama has an 11 point edge over Romney and a 9 point edge over Gingrich among voters aged 18 to 34. Ron Paul picks up 15% of the vote among 18 to 34 year olds in the Republican primary, but doesn’t get more than 3% among any of the older age groups.