I’ve already posted this map from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, which regularly updates its employment-based coincident and leading indices of economic activity:
Note that that map is for September; we’ll get an October map in another week or so.
Since I posted that map, the Philly Fed has updated their data from the leading index of economic activity. The national results are far better than the coincident map:
If that map turns out to be accurate, the vast majority of the central and western U.S. will be experiencing solid economic growth six months from now. (That’s obviously good news for Democrats in an election year, btw.) Take special note that some of the states that have been hardest hit by the recession and the housing crisis — Florida, Michigan, California, and Nevada — are expected to be in the upper tier of growth over the next 6 months.
Let me add that there are considerable downside risks for the national economy, especially financial contagion from the Eurozone crisis. And Georgia and a few other states along the Atlantic seaboard don’t fare well.
As I’ve noted often at this point, there are major regional disparities in this slow economic recovery.