Is another recession already underway? Imminent? Or will we stave off a technical recession even as we are mired in a period of slow growth with many economic measures stuck far below their highs from four years ago?
I’ve made a lot of posts in recent months that have dealt with these questions with uncertain answers.
A couple of things are clear, however: a) some states are faring worse than others, and b) Georgia is one of those states that is in more serious trouble than the national average.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s coincident indexes “combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each stateâ€™s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the stateâ€™s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.”
Here’s the current national map of 3-month averages:
As you can see, Georgia is one of 16 states with a negative index for July, August, and September.