Great Recession may be over, but has Southern Recession begun?

I have been highly critical of the ways in which Georgia’s leadership has dealt with the 2007 to 2009 recession and the sluggish growth that has followed.

There’s now mounting evidence that Georgia and other Southern states have slipped back into a regional recession.

First, here’s a map I’ve posted before, from the Philadelphia Fed, which shows the three month average of coincident economic indicators primarily regarding employment data:

I speculated a bit about the employment problems in the South generally and Georgia specifically here and here. Georgia has lost more than 30,000 jobs year-over-year as of August — and the supposed recovery began more than two years ago. Georgia and Alabama’s economies now are taking hits because of enforcement of new laws aimed at driving out illegal immigrants (the laws are working just as intended).

Nationwide, the ISM manufacturing index increased in September:

PMI was at 51.6% in September, up from 50.6% in August. The employment index was at 53.8%, up from 51.8%, and new orders index was unchanged at 49.6%.

Any number above 50 indicates expansion. Georgia’s overall index number was 48.7. Here’s a further breakdown: new orders fell to 45, and employment fell to 50, both below the national averages.