The Philadelphia Federal Reserve released the monthly index of economic activity for each state today, and the numbers aren’t very good for this point in a recovery.
And the numbers are terrible for Georgia and some other states in the Southeast. We are seeing significant signs of a new recession beginning or already underway, a subject that I tackled directly back in early June.
The July index is a composite of May, June, and July data:
“The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each stateâ€™s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the stateâ€™s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.”
The debt ceiling debate at the end of July is unlikely to have had much impact on this data set; almost certainly, many states have seen further slowing in August because of that debate, declines in stocks, and other factors.
This new map is reminiscent of one that I posted recently noting the states with unemployment rates.